PAGCOR Issues Warning on Potential 19 Percent Gross Gaming Revenue Decline in 2026
Alejandro Tengco, who serves as Chair and CEO of the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation, delivered a direct forecast that the nation's gross gaming revenue stands to fall by as much as 19 percent in 2026, and he tied this projection explicitly to climbing operational expenses plus external pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict.
That assessment arrives against a backdrop of ongoing industry adjustments where operators face higher input costs while revenue targets undergo repeated revisions throughout the current planning cycle.
Details Behind the PAGCOR Forecast
Tengco presented the figures during recent regulatory briefings where the focus remained on how sustained regional instability continues to affect supply chains, energy prices, and broader tourism inflows that normally support casino visitation; the 19 percent upper-bound estimate therefore reflects a combination of these variables rather than any single isolated factor.
Observers note that PAGCOR has historically published quarterly GGR updates on its official channels, and those same channels now carry forward-looking statements that align with Tengco's latest remarks.
Context of Rising Costs and Regional Pressures
Industry reports referenced in discussions around the forecast highlight how conflict-related disruptions have elevated costs for imported gaming equipment, security infrastructure, and hospitality supplies, while concurrent shifts in international travel patterns reduce the volume of high-value players from key source markets; Tengco emphasized that these trends compound one another rather than occurring in isolation.
Because the Middle East situation has already influenced global fuel and commodity markets, casino operators in the Philippines must absorb elevated day-to-day expenditures that were not fully anticipated in earlier multi-year models, and this reality forces downward adjustments to the 2026 baseline.
Operational Impacts Across Licensed Venues
Multiple PAGCOR-regulated properties have begun reviewing staffing schedules, marketing allocations, and capital expenditure timelines in light of the revised outlook, and Tengco indicated that these preparatory steps aim to preserve liquidity without compromising regulatory compliance standards that remain in force.
Data compiled through mid-year monitoring shows that certain integrated resorts already recorded softer win rates in premium tables and electronic gaming segments, prompting internal forecasts to incorporate contingency buffers that mirror the 19 percent scenario Tengco described.
Revenue Projection Adjustments for 2026
The 19 percent decline figure functions as an upper-bound scenario rather than a baseline expectation, yet Tengco made clear that even partial realization of the projected drop would require coordinated responses from both regulators and operators; those responses include accelerated digital platform investments and targeted promotions aimed at domestic players who continue to visit at steadier rates.
Because gross gaming revenue serves as the primary metric for calculating PAGCOR's contributions to national funds, any sustained shortfall carries direct implications for the agency's mandated remittances, and planning documents now incorporate sensitivity analyses around the conflict-driven cost increases.
Conclusion
Tengco's statement supplies a concrete numerical range for stakeholders to incorporate into their own modeling, and it underscores how external geopolitical developments intersect with domestic regulatory oversight in shaping the trajectory of Philippine gaming revenues through 2026 and beyond.